两种实用的洪灾损失频率分析方法  

Two Practical Methods on the Analyses of Inundation Loss Frequency

作　　者：邢贞相[1] 付强[2] 芮孝芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水资源环境学院,江苏南京210098 [2]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2006年第2期127-132,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家"863"项目(2002AA2Z4251-09);国家自然科学基金(30400275);中国博士后科学基金(2004035167)

摘　　要：为了提高洪灾损失频率分析方法的计算精度、速度和可操作性,利用基于信息扩散理论的风险分析方法和基于实数编码的遗传算法确定参数估计的频率分析法(PⅢ曲线)对洪灾损失频率进行分析,前者弥补了观测样本信息不足的缺陷,而后者克服了传统配线法精度低的缺点,体现了遗传算法的全局寻优能力.实例证明,这两种方法思路清晰,操作简单、通用性强、速度快、精度高,对防洪减灾均具有较好的指导作用.并可推广到其它灾情的风险分析,如气象、地震等.In order to improve the speed, accuracy and operability, the method of risk analysis based on information diffuse theory and the method of frequency analysis based on real coding based on accelerating genetic algorithm by which parameters of Person Ⅲ curve were estimated were tried to be used to analyze the inundation loss frequency was analyzed. The former method makes good the fault that lacking of enough observation data; then the latter one overcomes the defect that traditional methods have low accuracy, embodies the capability of whole optimization. The example demonstrates these two methods are clear thinking, easy and quick to operate, high commonality and accuracy. The two methods can guide to prevent flood and to reduce natural disasters. They were also used in other risk analysis, for example, weather, earthquake, and so on.

关 键 词：洪灾损失 信息扩散 加速遗传算法 频率分析 

分 类 号：TV122.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]