最大熵谱法在华北地震活动幕式结构分析中的应用  

APPLICATION OF THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY ANALYSIS TO THE EPISODIC STRUCTURE ANALYSIS FOR EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY IN NORTH CHINA

作　　者：李文英[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,中国石家庄050021

出　　处：《地震》1996年第2期121-127,共7页Earthquake

摘　　要：应用定性和定量相结合的方法对华北地区第三、第四活动期M_S≥6地震进行幕式结构分析,发现两个活动期的时间进程、应变释放的图象方面比较相似,由此推断第四活动期应变能大释放阶段已过,目前处于调整阶段。估计第四活动期可能持续到2020年前后。未来新的一幕应变释放峰值时间在2000年左右。3a内华北地区发生7级以上地震的可能性较小,1995—1996年发生5—6级地震的可能性较大。In this paper, we have analysed the episodic structure for the third and fourth seismically active periods (Ms≥6) in North China and have found out the pattern similarities for time history and strain release. Based on this paper's result, we inferred that the stage for large strain release for the fourth active period has come to the end and at present, it is situated in a period for strain requlation. We estimated that the fouth active period may sustain till 2020. The time for the strain release peak of a next episode is around 2000. In the next three years, the possibility for earthquake occurrence (Ms≥ 7) in the North China is small, and the possibility for earthquake occurrence (5≤MS< 6) is bigger in 1995-1996.

关 键 词：最大熵谱分析 华北地区 地震活动性 地震幕 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]