埋地管道震害预测方法简述  

Method of Earthquake Damage Prediction of Pipeline

作　　者：裴宗厂[1] 刘尧兴 王晓青[3] 刘鹏 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学,安徽合肥230026 [2]河南省地震局,河南郑州450000 [3]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036

出　　处：《西北地震学报》2005年第2期186-189,共4页Northwestern Seismological Journal

基　　金：江西省赣南地震重点监视防御区震害预测项目(JX105-07)

摘　　要：埋地管道是城市生命线工程的重要组成部分,在地震时较易发生震害。影响埋地管道在地震中破坏特点的因素,主要是强烈的地面运动或场地失效以及管材、管径等因素。研究方法以基于经验统计的方法在实际应用中比较多。本文分别对基于理论计算和经验统计的震害预测方法进行了简述和比较,最后提出了基于综合概率的埋地管道分析预测模型。The earthquake damage prediction of pipeline has heavy proportion in the earthquake damage prediction of lifeline system, and the pipeline is the brittle unit of lifeline when earthquake occurs. The earthquake damage to water supply pipeline is affected by the seismic motion and the site liquefaction, material and diameter of the pipes etc. The methods of earthquake damage prediction of pipeline which based on experience statistics are more practicality. In this paper the methods which based on theories account and experience statistics are introduced and compared respectively, and a new prediction model for pipeline according to comprehensive probability is put forward finally.

关 键 词：生命线系统 埋地管道 震害预测 模型 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]