印尼特大巨震的预测和信息有序性  

Forecasting for Super-great Earthquake in Indonesia and It's Informational Order

作　　者：沈宗丕[1] 徐道一[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市地震局,上海200062 [2]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《西北地震学报》2005年第3期282-283,286,共3页Northwestern Seismological Journal

基　　金：国家863项目(2001AA115012);地震科学联合基金会老专家预报专项(304054;304019)

摘　　要：2004年12月26日在印度尼西亚苏门答腊西北地区发生了8.7级特人巨震.作者在2004年10月对这一巨震做过预测:发震时间为2004年12月20日±5天(或±10天),预测震级为MS=7.5～8.5,与实际发震时间和震级符合较好,预测地区(在日本南部)与实际相差较大.印尼特大巨震的发生具有53～54年的信息有序性,因此特大巨震的发生是有可能预测的.A super-great earthquake（ Ms = 8.7）occurred in Sumatera, Indonesia on Dec. 26,2004. On Oct. 30,2004 the first author of this paper had given a great earthquake prediction： the date is on Dec. 20,2004 with a range of ± 5 days（or ± 10 days） ; the magnitude is Ms=7.5-8.5. Both the predicted date and magnitude are agree well with Indonesia earthquake. The predicted region was mentioned to be in the South Japan, which is far away from the Sumatera region. It is found that Indonesia earthquake and other two super-great earthquakes in Asia are characterized by the informational orderliness of 53-54 years. Therefore,it means that super-great earthquakes in Asia are possible to be predicted.

关 键 词：地震预测 巨震 信息有序性 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]