城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估方法  

An Method for Evaluating Cities' Ability of Reducing Earthquake Disasters

作　　者：谢礼立[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所

出　　处：《西北地震学报》2005年第4期296-304,共9页Northwestern Seismological Journal

摘　　要：城市防震减灾能力是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系,对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题。本文首先提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念,把人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间三方面作为衡量城市防震减灾能力的准则;围绕这三个准则归纳出影响城市防震减灾能力的六大因素,并用一些简单、可测量的指标来代表这六大因素,建立起城市防震减灾能力指标体系;然后再分别建立这些指标体系中的各种因素或其子因素与评价三准则中的人员伤亡、经济损失和恢复时间的联系;最后用灰色关联分析方法将三个评价准则综合成一个防震减灾能力指数。从而为城市防震减灾能力评估提供了一个较系统、完整的理论体系框架,可对城市的防震减灾能力进行定量的评价,指导城市防震减灾决策。Cities＇ability of reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors. Moreover the research on evaluating cities＂ ability of reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake science, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities＂ ability of reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated by three basic elements： the possible seismic casualty, the economic loss during the future earthquakes and the time required for recovery after earthquake. Based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating city＇s ability of reducing earthquake disasters is proposed. Then, the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and recovery time are gained by utilizing the existing methods for assessing earthquake losses. At last, using the grey correlation method, the comprehensive index of cities＇ability of reducing earthquake disasters is defined. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can be used to evaluate cities＂ ability of reducing earthquake disasters quantitatively, and the results will throw the light on the decision-making in reducing cities＂ earthquake disasters.

关 键 词：城市防震减灾能力 评估 人员伤亡 经济损失 震后恢复时间 指标体系 灰色关联分析 防震减灾能力指数 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]