白银市气温年代际变化及均生函数预测模型的应用  

Yearly temperature changes and application of mean generating function prediction model

作　　者：景怀玺 孙秉强[1] 李富洲[1] 

机构地区：[1]白银市气象局,甘肃白银730900

出　　处：《成都信息工程学院学报》2006年第1期128-132,共5页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

摘　　要：讨论了白银市气温突变及年代际变化特征,并利用均生函数预测模型对白银市气温进行预测试验.在1997～2003年预测试验中,结果表明,均生函数预测模型可以较好地拟合气温的气候变化趋势,对季、年气温有较好的预测能力.The temperature abrupt changes and its decadal variation features in the Baiyin district, Gansu province are used in the experiment of the short-term climate prediction. The results show that this model can correctly simulate the climate trend during the period between 1997 and 2003 and has a good prediction ability about the seasonal and annual temperature changes.

关 键 词：气温变化 均生函数 预测 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]