期权博弈理论在房地产投资决策中的应用  

Application of option game theory in real estate investment decision

作　　者：孟力[1] 孙威[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学管理学院,沈阳110023

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报》2006年第1期102-106,共5页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学基金资助项目(L03DJY004)

摘　　要：当前我国国民经济发展的显著特点之一就是不确定性增大,使得NPV方法在房地产投资过程中,越来越不适应当前经济发展的需要.基于期权博弈理论,分析了在对称双头垄断市场结构下房地产的投资行为,建立了投资优化数学模型.通过对案例仿真计算,画图说明了有关投资优化决策方案,并且讨论了无风险利率和资产价值波动率的参数变化对投资决策的影响.其观点结论对于我国当前房地产市场开发投资实践活动具有一定的理论实践指导意义.One of the remarkable characteristics in the current development of national economy in China is the increase in uncertainty, which makes the NPV method more and more unsuitable for the current economic development in the real estate investment process. Based on option game theory, the investment decision-making of real estate under symmetrical duopoly was analyzed and the investment optimization mathematic model was established. The effect of risk-free interest rate and parameter variation in asset value on the investment decision-making was illustrated through the case simulation and diagrams. The conclusions will contribute to both the theories and practice in the present investment in the real estate market of China.

关 键 词：房地产投资 期权博弈 实物期权 优化策略 案例仿真 

分 类 号：F235.2[经济管理—会计学]