上市公司财务危机动态预测模型研究  

The Method to Predicting Financial Distress in Chinese Listed Firms

作　　者：李秉祥[1] 杨永辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2006年第2期60-65,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：预测上市公司财务危机是投资者、债权人及证券市场监管机构所广泛关注的课题.运用现代资本结构理论和期权模型,以企业“资不抵债”作为上市公司陷入财务危机的标志,利用资本市场的信息指标——股价建立起上市公司动态财务危机预测模型,克服了统计预测方法利用财务报表信息预测的时期性和滞后性的缺陷.Financial distress （FD） predicting the corporations is a subject of wide concern to investors, creditors and securities supervisory organs. According to modern capital structure theory and the option model, applying the information index of the capital market. ＂price of the stock＂, the paper designs the dynamic predicting model by using the price of assets are less than debt received by listed firms as the indicator of FD. The model overcomes the weakness of statistics models.

关 键 词：上市公司 财务危机 预测 期望违约率 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]