模糊马尔科夫链预测模型在桂江流域径流预测中的应用  

Application of fuzzy Markov chain model in run-off prediction for Guijiang basin

作　　者：周秀平[1] 黄伟军[1] 王文圣[1] 解苗苗[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《广西水利水电》2006年第1期29-31,69,共4页Guangxi Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：广西水利水电科技计划项目(桂水科合字[2005]2号)

摘　　要：在马尔科夫链预测时需要把研究对象划分为不同的状态,而状态划分具有模糊性。提出了一种基于模糊的马尔科夫链预测模型,介绍了建模的方法和步骤,给出了模糊马尔科夫链的概率计算公式。将模型应用于桂江流域年径流预测分析,结果表明,预测与实际情况一致。The application of Markov chain prediction model requires division of studied subjects into different states. However, state division is fuzzy. A fuzzy - base Markov chain prediction model is presented in this paper, including introduction of the method and steps of model establishment, the probability calculation formulas of fuzzy Markov chain. This model had been applied in annual runoff prediction for Guijiang basin, rendering prediction results consistent with actual condition.

关 键 词：模糊 马尔科夫链 径流 预测 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]