基于随机性集合覆盖模型的伤病员后送运力预计及优化配置仿真模型设计  

Designing a simulative model for the forecast and optimal placement of casualty evacuation assets based on the probabilistic location set covering problem

作　　者：秦超[1] 陈国良[1] 方影[2] 陆健[3] 

机构地区：[1]第二军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生勤务学教研室,上海200433 [2]第二军医大学基础医学部数理教研室,上海200433 [3]第二军医大学卫生勤务学系卫生统计学教研室

出　　处：《第二军医大学学报》2006年第3期299-302,共4页Academic Journal of Second Military Medical University

基　　金：军队医药卫生"十五"计划项目(03M002)

摘　　要：目的:设计仿真模型用于大批伤病员后送动力预计及配置优化。方法:分析了目前运力预计方法的不足,引入运筹学中的选址问题,选用应用随机性集合覆盖模型解决后送运力优化配置的理论模型,分析探讨了伤病员后送中的若干不确定因素,包括后送工具的可获得性、后送工具的容量及速度、有效工作时间。根据这些随机变量的特征,确定相应的理论概率分布。结果:按照蒙特卡罗仿真的原理,以随机性集合覆盖模型为基础,用随机数模拟上述不确定因素,形成后送运力优化配置的仿真模型。结论:本模型可作为今后开发计算机辅助软件的基础,并供各级卫勤机构参考。Objective：To design a simulative model for the forecast and optimal placement of mass casualty evacuation assets. Methods： An operation research module named the location selection problem was introduced in this study. The probabilistic location set covering problem was chosen as the theoretical model for optimal placement of mass casualty evacuation assets. Several indeterminate factors were analyzed in details, including the availability;capacity and velocity and effective work time of evacuation assets. The ideal statistical distributions were determined by the characteristics of these variables. Results： According to the principle of Monte Carlo simulation and based on the probabilistic location set covering problem, random numbers fitting theoretical probabilistic distributions were generated to simulate those indeterminate factors, based on which a simulative model for optimal placement of casualty evacuation assets was designed. Conclusion： This simulative model may be used as a basis for further development of a computer-assisted program and as a reference for medical administration commanders at different levels.

关 键 词：伤病员后送 运力预计 优化 系统仿真 随机性集合覆盖模型 

分 类 号：R821.41[医药卫生—临床医学]