气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应  

National Assessment Report of Climate Change (Ⅱ): Climate change impacts and adaptation

作　　者：林而达[1] 许吟隆[1] 蒋金荷[2] 李玉娥[1] 杨修[1] 张建云[3] 李从先[4] 吴绍洪[5] 赵宗群[6] 吴建国[7] 居辉[1] 严昌荣[1] 王守荣[8] 刘允芬[5] 杜碧兰[9] 赵成义[10] 秦保芳[11] 刘春蓁[3] 黄朝迎[12] 张小全[13] 马世铭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [3]水利部水利信息中心,北京210093 [4]同济大学海洋与地球科学学院,上海200092 [5]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [6]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100085 [7]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [8]中国气象局,北京100081 [9]国家海洋局海洋发展战略研究所,北京100860 [10]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [11]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610041 [12]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [13]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,北京100091

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2006年第2期51-56,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关计划"重大环境问题对策与关键支撑技术研究"(2003BA614A-15)资助

摘　　要：已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,目前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域、加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。The significant and various impacts of climate change are observed from the past experience, the impacts were shown as advantageous and adverse impacts in different sectors and regions, while mainly presented as adverse. It is very likely that future climate change would result in significant adverse impacts on the ecosystem and the national sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. The adverse impacts would be alleviated by adopting adaptive measures; the adaptive actions to climate change should be incorporated into the medium- and long-term planning of national economic and social development. Because of lack of scientific research and limit of understanding on climate change, there are still a lot of uncertainties for impact assessment methodology and results. Case studies should be strengthened, research aspects should be enlarged, and impacts assessment of extreme weather/climate events should be enhanced to reduce the uncertainties and develop practical adaptive measures to cope with climate change in China.

关 键 词：中国气候变化 气候情景 影响评估 适应措施 不确定性 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]