基于数理统计的工程投标决策定量分析方法及应用  

A Quantitative-Analysis Method for Engineering Bidding Decision and it's Application Based on Mathematical Statistics

作　　者：徐立新[1,2] 张新成[1] 吴相林[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学控制科学与工程系 [2]河南机电高等专科学校计算机科学系,新乡453002

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2006年第8期204-206,226,共4页Computer Engineering and Applications

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:0411013300);河南省高等学校青年骨干教师计划资助项目(编号:2005-174);河南省教育厅自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(编号:2006520004)。

摘　　要：投标决策对于任何一个投标单位都是非常重要的,不加选择、盲目地投标,将会导致企业管理混乱和资源的浪费,影响本单位发展战略目标的实现,而取得项目的核心就是投标报价,报价水平的合理性及竞争性是投标成败的关键。文章运用数理统计的基本原理,为承包商提供了一种工程投标决策模型及其定量分析方法,可以在不确定条件下减少决策中的盲目性,获得科学、合理的决策结果,从而帮助投标单位提高中标率。该文对投标报价水平与中标率的数学模型构建、曲线方程拟合、回归方程计算及回归的显著性检验进行了讨论,并结合工程应用实例进行了验证。Bidding decision is very important for any contractor,for unwisely bidding will cause serious loss of the company,impair the company＇s strategic goals of development.The core of winning the project is the quoted price,the rationality and rivalrousness of the level of the quoted price are bidding＇s key to the success or failure.This paper,by applying some basic theories and methods of mathematical statistics, presents a model of engineering bidding decision and it＇s quantitative-analysis method for any contractor.This method can try one＇s best to reduce the blindness in making-decision,obtain scientific and rational decision result;thus increase the rate of win bidding for the contractor. Designing mathematical model of the level of quoted price and the rate of win bidding,fitting curve equation,computing regression equation and it＇s significance testing are discussed in this paper,and a case study of the decision-making is provided.

关 键 词：工程项目 投标报价 决策 数学模型 数理统计 

分 类 号：TP39[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]