“排除法”在强震中长期危险区判定中的应用  

THE APPLICATION OF ELIMINATION METHOD TO DETERMINING MEDIUM-LONG TERM RISK REGIONS FOR STRONG EARTHQUAKES

作　　者：韩新民[1] 周瑞琦[1] 王兴辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局

出　　处：《地震研究》1996年第3期304-309,共6页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：本文提出＂排除法＂在６级以上强震中长期预测地区判定中应用的主要依据，并给出了相应的应用范围。认为云南主要地震带（区）以外的地区，地震带内全新世活动断裂及出现破裂异常的全新世活动断裂展布区，近年来发生过强震的＂免疫区＂等地段或地区，在６级以上地震中长期危险性预测中均可予以＂排除＂。In this paper, major basis for application of elimination method to determining medium -long term prediction for strong earthquakes of over M 6 and the method' s range are affered.The authors believe that these regions, including the regions outside major seismic belts /zones in Yunnan, active fault regions of non- Holocene Epoch and active fault distribution regions of Holocene Epoch Where rupture anomalies have occurred, and immunized regions where strong earthquakes have taken place in recent years, can be eliminated from medium-long term risk prediction for earthquakes of over M 6.

关 键 词：强震 地震预测 地震 危险性分析 云南 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]