海河流域水污染及水资源短缺对经济发展的影响  

Impacts of Water Pollution and Shortage on Economic Development of the Haihe River Basin

作　　者：夏军[1] 黄浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室

出　　处：《资源科学》2006年第2期2-7,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国水资源利用的经济学分析研究"(编号:04JZD00011);水利部海河水利委员会"海河生态环境承载力分析"专项项目

摘　　要：海河流域地处华北平原,是我国七大流域之一,在全国有着重要的作用,但近20年来生态环境严重恶化,与流域的经济发展极其不相适应。本文采用可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium,即CGE)分析了海河流域水污染以及缺水对经济发展的影响,将水资源作为生产要素加入生产函数中,同时将水污染作为一个单独的污染处理部门,通过扩展的投入产出表分析水资源、水污染治理部门与其他经济部门之间的投入产出关系,进而建立CGE均衡模型。研究表明:海河流域水污染十分严重,和流域水资源短缺相比,水污染控制显得更为迫切。情景分析结果说明,通过流域的水污染治理,尽管传统意义的GDP有所减少,但绿色GDP呈增长趋势,社会经济朝良性循环方向发展。Haihe River Basin is one of seven major river basin with important ecological function in China. With the country＇ s economic development, ecological environment in the region is becoming more and more worse and its ecosystem is getting extremely fragile which is inconsistent with the country＇ s rapid economic development. CGE model （Computable General Equilibrium ） originated from the general equilibrium theory of Walrus in western economics can be used for analyzing the impact of the policy on economic development. Environmental policies taken to reduce pollutants disposal and water consumption directly influencing product price and production cost as well as economic structure, therefore, environment and resource elements can be brought into CGE model to simulate general economic system of equilibrium and to identify the key elements, which determine the general mechanisms of resource distribution and income distribution in market economy. This paper analyze the impact of water pollution and water shortage on basin＇s economic development through using CGE model while regarding water resource as one of the production factor and water pollution treatment as an independent entity at the same time to analyses the relationship between input and output among water resource, water pollution control and other economic activities. The analysis results revealed that, first, through water pollution harness, the traditional GDP will decrease, but the green GDP will increase, and the economic in the basin increases to the sustainable way; Second, compare to water shortage crisis, water pollution crisis is more urgent. Through water diversion from south to north project and technique index promotion, water shortage crisis will get alleviate, but water pollution need great effort.

关 键 词：CGE模型 海河流域 水污染 水资源短缺 绿色GDP 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]