阿克苏河径流量时间变化特征及成因分析  

Temporal Change of Annual Runoff Volume of the Aksu River,a Source Stream of the Tarim River

作　　者：陈颖[1] 邓自旺[1] 史红政 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学资源与城乡规划系,江苏南京210044 [2]新疆阿克苏地区气象局,新疆阿克苏843000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2006年第1期21-25,共5页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项(2004DIB3J118)塔里木河流域气候暖湿化及人类活动对地表水资源的影响

摘　　要：运用多种统计方法,对1957-2003年塔里木河最大的源流———阿克苏河年径流量序列进行分析,发现阿克苏河年径流量序列呈明显的上升趋势,大致以4 a左右的周期均匀变化。年径流量作为气温上升的滞后反应,20世纪90年代以来快速增加。通过普查相关和引用积雪卫星遥感资料分析,前期山区降水和气温的年际变化是造成河水径流量稳定变化的主要原因,由气温变化导致的山区积雪融水是阿克苏河径流的重要补给来源。夏季的气温、降水的突然变化是引起径流量突然增大甚至引起洪水的主要原因。The Aksu River is one of the main source streams of the Tarim River in Xinjiang. In this paper, the change of annual runoff volume of the Aksu River is analyzed by using the data of annual runoff volumes measured by two hydrological stations of the Aksu River during the period of 1957 2003, annual air temperature and precipitation observed by the meteorological stations in the Aksu River basin during the period of 1961 -2003, altitude of 0 ℃-atmospheric layer at 08：00 o＇clock, measured by Aksu Meteorological Station during the period of 1986 - 2003, and snowcover in the upper reaches of the Toxkan River and Kumalax River, derived with EOS/MODES satellite RS means during the period from December 2000 to May 2004 and provided by Remote Sensing Center, Xinjiang Meteorological Bureau. The conclusions are as follows： （1） The annual runoff volume of the Aksu River is in a significant increase trend and fluctuates in a period about 4 years. The change extent of the anomaly of annual runoff volume of the river was not so high during the period from the end-1950s to the end-1980s, and the annual runoff volume has begun to significantly increase since the 1990s; （2） Precipitation and air temperature in the mountainous regions affect strongly the change of annual runoff volume of the Aksu River, the Aksu Ricer is mainly recharged by snow melt water from the mountainous regions, and the floods in summer are mainly caused by heavy rainfall and snow melt water; （3） The inflow of the Aksu River in spring and summer is mainly affected by snoweover depth in the mountainous regions in previous winter; （4） The recharging stream water volume of the Aksu River to the mainstream of the Tarim River increases with the time because of the increase of runoff volume of the Aksu River.

关 键 词：径流量 时间序列 气象因子 积雪覆盖率 阿克苏河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]