蒙特卡罗方法在变电站综合自动化可靠性评估中的应用  

Application of Mente Carlo Method in Reliability Evaluation of Integrated Substation Automation

作　　者：王世香[1] 高仕斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学电气工程学院,四川省成都市610031

出　　处：《电网技术》2006年第5期96-100,共5页Power System Technology

摘　　要：介绍了采用蒙特卡罗方法计算可靠性指标的原理,提出了将故障树与蒙特卡罗方法相结合进行可靠性评估的方法,即应用故障树分析法建立牵引变电所间隔层的失效模型,应用蒙特卡罗方法进行定量分析从而得到可靠性指标及单元重要度参数,从而确定了系统在可靠性方面的薄弱环节。通过分析对比一般结构模型和全冗余结构模型的可靠性指标可知后者的可靠指标可知后者的可靠性更优。The principle of evaluating reliability index by Monte Carlo method is presented, the method in which the Monte Carlo method is combined with fault tree to perform reliability evaluation is proposed, i.e., by use of fault tree analysis （FTA） the failure model of traction substation＇s compartment layer is built and by use of Monte Carlo method in quantitative analysis the reliability index and cell importance parameter are obtained in order to find the weak link of the system. Through comparing the reliability index of ordinary structural model with that of full redundant structure model, it is known that the reliability of the latter is better.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗方法 故障树分析法 可靠性评估 变电站综合自动化 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]