黄土高原水土流失区生态退耕对粮食生产的可能影响  

Ecological Restoration and its Effects on Grain Production in the Corrasive Region of Loess Plateau

作　　者：刘贤赵[1] 宿庆 

机构地区：[1]烟台师范大学地理与资源管理学院 [2]烟台师范大学图书馆,山东烟台264025

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2006年第2期99-104,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40101005);山东省自然科学基金项目(Q002E03);山东省教委项目(J02L01)

摘　　要：根据黄土高原水土流失区有关各省区制定的退耕规划,分析了生态退耕对粮食生产产生的可能影响。(1)生态退耕将直接减少粮食147.92×104t,由此退耕还林还草可能会带来粮食产量的暂时下降。(2)从生态退耕的正面影响看,退耕节省下来的生产要素的转移可以带来未退耕耕地粮食产量的增加;同时技术进步、中低产田改造等农业基础设施的建设和生态环境的改善,势必也对粮食生产产生促进和推动作用。(3)粮食需求预测表明,2010年黄土高原水土流失区粮食总量将达1 400.71×104t,在人均400kg,425kg和450kg水平下粮食需求分别为1 389.34×104t,470.37×104t和1 563.01×104t。从A方案看,就黄土高原水土流失区整体而言将不会出现粮食短缺;但具体到分区而言,黄土丘陵区必须通过粮食调入才能满足本区需求,而黄土台塬区则有一定盈余。According to the restoration plan of each province in the corrasive region in Loess Plateau, the effect of ecological restoration on grain production in the eorrasive region of loess plateau is analyzed. （ 1 ） The 147.92×10^4t grain production will decrease in the corrasive region because of the conversion from sloping farming land to forest or grassland. （2）Ecological restoration can have some positive influence on grain production. The transfer of water, fertilizers, pesticides, seeds and labor to reserved cultivated farmland can bring more increase in grain yield. Simultaneously, the advancement in agricultural science and technology and the agricultural infrastructure construction such as reconstruction of medium or low yield famland can promote grain production by improving the ecological environment and reduce the risk of natural disasters. （3）The prediction shows that the total yield in the corrasive region of Loess Plateau in 2010 will reach 1 400.71 ×10^4t. The demand of grain based on the three levels （400kg, 425kg or 450kg/person） will be respectively 1 389.34×10^4t, 1 470.37 ×10^4t and 1 563.01×10^4t. In Project A, grain shortage will not appear in the corrasive region of Loess Plateau on the whole. But in order to achieve an eqnilibrium of demand and supply, loess hill regions must import grain from the Loess Platform region.

关 键 词：黄土高原 水土流失区 生态退耕 粮食生产 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]