中国区域经济增长协整分析与区域政策选择——兼论“中部塌陷”现象  

A Co-integration Analysis of China's Regional Economic Growth and Regional Policy Choices——A Study on the Phenomena of Central Trap

作　　者：刘乃全[1] 陶云[2] 张学良[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学区域经济研究中心上海,200433 [2]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2006年第4期49-57,共9页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目批准号:70203006)

摘　　要：文章运用协整分析方法,对我国东部、中部、西部三个地区经济增长之间的相互关系进行了探讨,协整分析和葛兰杰因果关系检验的结果是西部经济增长与中部、东部经济增长均有协整关系,但中部与东部经济增长之间没有协整关系;西部经济增长促进了东部经济的增长,东部反过来也促进了西部经济的增长,但对中部经济增长的作用不大;中部不是东部和西部经济增长的葛兰杰原因,由此显示出我国区域经济非协调发展的基本特征。在实证分析的基础上,文章还对中国区域经济非协调发展及“中部塌陷”的机理作了理论分析,并给出了一些相关的政策建议。This paper, by means of co-integration approach, analyzes the inter-relationship of economic growth among the eastern, central and western areas in China. According to the results of co-integration analysis and Granger causality test, there does exist a co-integratlon relationship between the economic growth of the western and central areas, and also between the western and eastern areas. Such kind of relationship, however, does not exhibit itself between the central and eastern areas. Economic growth in the western area promotes the growth in the east; economic growth in the east area also favors the western area in turn, but there is little impetus to the central area; economic growth in the central area does not Granger-cause to the growth of the east, or the west. Finally, some policy suggestions are given in the paper＇s conclusion part.

关 键 词：经济增长 单位根检验 协整 葛兰杰因果关系 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F224.32