以年龄为标志量化分析疾病和机体的康复效能  

Quantitative analysis on rehabilitative efficiency of disease and body with age as marker

作　　者：刘辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连医科大学检验医学院临床免疫学教研室,辽宁省大连市116027

出　　处：《中国临床康复》2006年第16期12-14,共3页Chinese Journal of Clinical Rehabilitation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(39670273)~~

摘　　要：目的:机体的康复效能与年龄相关,利用以1982,1990,2000年中国大陆3次人口普查资料对疾病的发生与康复效能的年龄标志进行分析。方法:实验于2005-08在大连医科大学完成。1982,1990,2000年中国大陆人口总数分别为10亿817万5288人,11亿3368万2501人,12亿6583万人,以3次人口普查资料作为实验数据,计算人口95%和5%自然生存率的年龄。①小于5%生存率的年龄计算:采用1990年和2000年人口普查资料,通过人口总数和年龄别构成比(按年龄分组各组占总体的百分比)可分别求出65～75岁、75～84岁和85岁以上各年龄段的人口数,用上述各年龄段的人口数可求出对应留存率。假定出生时生存率为100%,人均寿命(指因增龄只剩50%生存率人群的年龄)在65～74岁,那么该年龄段生存率应为0.500。根据乘法概率法则,将某一年龄段的留存率与前一年龄段的生存率相乘可得该年龄段的生存率。②大于95%生存率的年龄计算:采用1982年和2000年中国大陆人口普查资料,年龄段间距为20年。按上述方法分别求出5～24岁、25～44岁、45～64岁和65～85岁年龄段的人口数及留存率。假定出生时出生率为100%,人均寿命落在65～85岁,那么该年龄段的生存率应为0.500。以此为基点,根据乘法概率法则,将某一年龄段的生存率除以留存率可得前一年龄段的生存率,同理可反推出平均年龄以下各年龄段的生存率。结果:①小于5%生存率的年龄计算结果:65～74岁年龄段的生存率为50.0%,75～84岁年龄段的生存率为27.4%,≥85岁年龄段的生存率仅为6.5%。②大于95%生存率的年龄计算结果:5～24岁年龄段的生存率为98.1%,25～44岁年龄段的生存率为97.9%,45～64岁年龄段的生存率为87.7%,65～84岁年龄段的生存率仅为50.0%。结论:根据疾病发生与康复效能,以年龄为标志可分成4个阶段:0～44岁为健康期,45～69岁为疾病多发期,70～84岁为疾病高发期,85岁以上AIM： Rehabilitation of body is accorded with the age. According to the data of population census in 1982, 1990 and 2000, we analyzed the age marker about occurrence of disease and rehabilitative efficiency. METHODS： The experiment was conducted at the Dalian Medical University in August 2005. The total number of population was 1 008 175 288, 1 133 682 501 and 1 265 830 000, respectively in 1982, 1990 and 2000 in the mainland of China. Materials of the 3-time population census were considered as experimental data, and age of natural survival rate was calculated in 95% and 5% population. ①Calculation of age of less than 5% survival rate： Based on the materials of population survey in 1990 and 2000, number of population in 65-75 years, 75-84 years and 85 years could be calculated, respectively by constituent ratio （percentage of each group in the whole according to age） of sum of population and age. Relative rctention rate could be calculated with the number of population at above-mentioned period. It was supposed that the survival rate when birthing was 100% and mean longevity was 65-74 years （age of population at 50% survival rate because of increased age）, then the survival rate at that age-period was 0.500. According to probability principle of multiplication, the survival rate was the product of retention rate at certain period and survival rate at the previous period. ②Calculation of age that more than 95% survival rate： Using the materials of population census in mainland of China in 1982 and 2000, spacing of age period was 20 years. In the light of above methods, number of population at 5-24 years, 25-44 years, 45-64 years and 65-85 years and retention rate were gained, respectively. Supposed that the birth rate was 100% and the mean longevity was 65-85 years, and then the survival rate at that age-period was 0.500. Taking this as basic point, survival rate at previous period was that the survival rate at ＇certain period divided by retention rate according to probability principle of

关 键 词：康复 寿命表 应激 年龄组 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]