华北地区未来强震概率统计分析  

STATISTIC ANALYSIS OF STRONG SHOCKS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA FOR THE COMING SEVERAL YEARS

作　　者：郑建常[1] 华爱军[1] 周翠英[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,山东济南250014

出　　处：《高原地震》2005年第4期18-23,共6页Plateau Earthquake Research

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关计划(3+2)延续项目子专题成果(2004BA601B01-04-02)

摘　　要：应用泊松模型的极值分布对华北地区的地震活动趋势进行估计和分析,结果表明,2008年前华北地区发生6级以上地震的危险性较大;2005年地震活动短期内可能还会持续目前较弱的态势,但未来1～2年内华北地区地震活动很有可能明显增强.With extremtan disfibution of Poisson process, this paper estimates the tendency of earthquakes activity in North China. The result has shown that the risk is increasing that strong earthquakes with M 〉 6.0 will be occurred in North China; on the other hand, earthquakes activity will be sustained for a short - term at a lower level in 2005, but it will be obviously increased in coming 1 or 2 years.

关 键 词：华北地区 地震趋势 复发周期 概率统计 地震活动 

分 类 号：P315.08[天文地球—地震学]