中国出生性别比偏高及未来女性赤字预测  

The High Sex Ratio at Birth in China and the Forecast of Female Deficit

作　　者：康建英[1] 朱雅丽[1] 原新[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学人口与发展研究所,天津300071

出　　处：《南方人口》2006年第2期59-64,共6页South China Population

摘　　要：1980年代以来,中国人口出生性别比开始偏高且持续增高,2000年出生性别比已经达到116.9。出生性别比偏高不仅表现在分孩次的差异上,而且还表现出了明显的地区分布特征。本文利用“五普”数据资料为基期,对1980年后出生、并受出生性别比持续升高影响的人口进行预测,分析30年间的分城乡、分年龄的女性赤字规模及其变化趋势。The sex ratio at birth in China has risen continuously since 1980s and till 2000s it reached 116.9. The sex ratio at birth not only shows in different childbearing orders but also in regional distribution. This paper, based on the data of the fifth population census, forecasts the population in the future 30 years considering mainly the population born after 1980s and the high sex ratio at birth to analyze the scale and the changes of female deficit in the urban and rural region and in different age groups.

关 键 词：性别比偏高 女性赤字 预测 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]