南海热带气旋路径集合预报试验  

THE EXPERIMENTS OF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION OF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

作　　者：袁金南[1] 万齐林[1] 黄燕燕[1] 丁伟钰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2006年第2期105-112,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目"南海热带气旋集合预报模式系统"(2003C32603)

摘　　要：利用3种不同模式的初始资料,通过它们生成得到16个不同的初始场,分别对2004年南海及其周边地区9个热带气旋个例进行集合预报试验,最后筛选得到了7个南海热带气旋初值集合成员,由此初步探讨了南海热带气旋初值集合成员的生成方法。结果表明,采用不同模式的初始资料生成得到初值集合成员的方法用于集合预报,对南海热带气旋路径预报有一些明显的改进。Sixteen different initial fields are obtained by using forecast models. Seven initial ensemble members for numerical data of different initial fields from 3 numerical forecast of tropical cyclone track are selected by comparing the effectiveness based on the results of numerical experiments for 9 tropical cyclone cases in the South China Sea or nearby areas in 2004. Here, the method of producing initial ensemble members to predict the track of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea is discussed preliminarily. The results show that some obvious improvements can be obtained for the track forecasting by using ensemble members formed by the data of initial fields of the 3 different numerical models.

关 键 词：集合预报 初值生成 南海热带气旋 数值试验 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]