基于粗糙集的IT项目风险评价方法研究  

A Study on IT Project Risk Evaluation Based on Rough Set

作　　者：王寓辰[1] 张金隆[1] 丛国栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2006年第2期87-91,共5页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70271031)

摘　　要：针对IT招标项目风险因素多、不确定性大而导致的复杂的复合决策问题,在构建三级风险因素指标集的基础上,采用粗糙集的属性重要度及层次分析法获得指标的权重。在传统决策推理方式的基础上,提出了一种综合运用规则、事例、模型推理的更符合IT招标项目实际的联合推理方式风险评价决策机制,并重点讨论了定权灰聚类推理模型的运用。经实例分析,联合推理方式能够较好地对项目投标商进行筛选。In order to deal with the imprecision and uncertainty of risk factors during IT project risk decision making, this paper analyzed the design of project risk index and the weight based on rough set. The paper designed the IT project risk evaluation and decision reasoning mechanism based on cooperate reasoning first. Then the main processes and algorithms of the reasoning were discussed, especially the fixed weight reasoning model with grey clustering. Finally, the efficiency of reasoning was proved by a practical example.

关 键 词：IT招标项目 风险分析 决策机制 联合推理 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]