基于遗传算法的双线性模型在大坝安全监测预报中的应用  

Application of bilinear time series model based on genetic algorithms in dam security monitoring forecast

作　　者：汪莲[1] 金光球[2] 曹明宏[3] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木建筑工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]河海大学水利水电工程学院,江苏南京210098 [3]安徽鸿路钢结构有限公司,安徽合肥231131

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第4期467-470,共4页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

摘　　要：文章提出了实用自相关系数图确定双线性模型的自回归项,应用了基于遗传算法的一套建模方法。通过实例表明,由于双线性模型实际拟合和预测过程中产生的残差信息进行反馈矫正,保证了模型高的拟合精度和稳健的预测性能,与门限自回归模型比较,双线性模型比门限自回归模型具有更好的预测精度。The auto correlation coefficients figure is suggested to ascertain auto regressive items of bilinear time series model（BM）. A scheme based on genetic algorithms is adopted to deduce the BM. Calculation of the example shows that the precision of the model is good and its forecast capability is stable because the BM uses the feedback information of prediction residual errors in the course of fitting and forecasting. The forecast precision of the BM is better in comparison with the threshold autoregressive（TAR） model.

关 键 词：大坝安全监测 预报 双线性模型 遗传算法 自相关系数 

分 类 号：N945.16[自然科学总论—系统科学] TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]