“H-M-K假说”的检验——基于中国贸易结构数据的实证研究  

H-M-K Hypothesis,Trade Structure and Real Exchange Rate

作　　者：姜新旺[1] 李未无[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学经济研究所 [2]广东外语外贸大学

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2006年第4期22-28,共7页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(04BJL030)资助。

摘　　要：“H-M-K假说”或克鲁格曼“45度规则”指出,对于经济处于快速增长的国家而言,如果该国与世界其它国家的经济增长率之比等于该国出口需求收入弹性与进口需求收入弹性之比,该国的实际汇率往往不会出现持续的贬值或升值趋势。本文首先拓展了该理论,得出一个与“45度规则”等价但更简洁的理论结论,然后对中国的情况进行了实证检验,检验结果表明:中国不符合“H-M-K假说”之结论。通过对中国进出口商品结构以及日本和中国双边贸易结构的分析,我们认为造成中国不符合“45度规则”的主要原因在于:我国出口商品结构中,初级产品、低附加值产品所占比重过大,高技术含量、高附加值产品占比过小,而进口商品结构则刚好相反。H-M-K Hypothesis or Krugman＇s 45 Degree Rule indicates that for a country with rapid growth of economy, unless the relative growth rate between the home country and the rest of the world is equal to the ratio of income elasticity of export demand and income elasticit.y of import demand, the country＇s real exchange rate will exhibit a long-run trend. Extending the theory ,and arriv- ing at an equal but more concise conclusion, this paper is the empirical study of the appilication of H-M-K Hypothesis in China. The result shows that china is not fit for H-M-K Hypothesis, Through the analysis of structure of exporting products and bilateral trade structure of China and Japan, it concludes that the reason consists in the large part of primary products and those with low added value in export but large part of high-tech products and those with high added value in import.

关 键 词：“H-M-K假说” 贸易结构 实际汇率 

分 类 号：F752.733.3[经济管理—国际贸易]