地震活动性总体参量Rt及其在地震预测中应用的研究  

Study on the integrated parameter R_t of seismic activity and its application to earthquake prediction

作　　者：王林瑛[1] 陈学忠[1] 朱传镇[1] 陈佩燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《地震》2006年第2期54-60,共7页Earthquake

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关项目(2004BA601B01-01-01)资助;中国地震局地球物理研究所论著(06AC1003)

摘　　要：考虑到地震活动性综合分析在地震预测中的重要作用,提出一种地震活动性总体状态参量Rt。该参量由多项地震活动性预测因子构成,其中包括:地震频次、缺震、地震熵、b值和调制比,该参数描述了某时段内,多种地震活动性参量对正常状态的偏离。当Rt=1时,地震活动状态是稳定的,反之,当Rt<1时,则表明地震活动处于不同程度的不稳定态。文中对华北、东北和西北地区地震以及矿山地震的Rt值在强事件前后随时间的变化进行了研究,初步结果表明:在强震或较大矿震前Rt值明显偏离1。同时,对Rt值的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。Considering the great role of comprehensive analysis of seismic activity in earth- quake prediction, an integrated parameter R, of seismicity has been proposed in this paper. R~ consists of several seismic factors, including earthquake frequency, average magnitude, seismic entropy, b value and modulation ratio, it describes the total deviation of seismicity state from the normal in a given time interval. When Rt = 1, the state of seismic activity is stable, otherwise, the seismic state is unstable in varying degrees. The variation of R~ with time has been studied for earthquakes occurred in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China regions as well as for mining earthquakes. The preliminary results show that R, deviates from 1.0 clearly before the large earthquake occurrence. The efficiency of earthquake prediction by use of R, parameter has been also estimated.

关 键 词：总体状态 多参数 地震预测效能检验 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]