福建省热带气旋暴雨落区完全预报方法  

Perfect Prediction Method of Rainstorms Induced by Tropical Cyclones over Fujian Province

作　　者：蔡义勇[1] 刘爱鸣[2] 陈雪钦[2] 李白良[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象科学研究所 [2]福建省气象台,福州350001

出　　处：《气象科技》2006年第2期132-137,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金："福建省中尺度灾害天气预警系统"和科技部社会公益研究专项"福建省台风中尺度暴雨预报研究"项目共同资助

摘　　要：通过分析近几年影响和登陆福建省的热带气旋区域暴雨过程的T106部分物理量场的分布特征,发现其中的k指数、比湿q、涡度ζ和垂直速度ω场对预报福建省热带气旋区域暴雨有较好的指示意义,它们分别反映了产生暴雨所必须的水汽、不稳定能量和辐合上升运动等基本条件.为了提高暴雨落区预报的效果,提出以动态方式确定物理量临界值的方法作热带气旋暴雨落区预报.通过对1995～2001年7～10月的144个个例T106物理量场的普查和统计分析,得到福建省热带气旋区域暴雨预报的着眼点和物理量诊断模型,建立了应用T213数值预报模式输出的物理量预报场,以动态方式确定物理量临界值,作为福建省热带气旋区域暴雨落区预报的完全预报（PP）方法.According to the analysis of partial T106 physical fields associated with heavy rainfall induced by tropical cyclones which affected or landed Fujian Province in the recent years, it is founded that some factors, such as the stability index （k）, specific humidity （q）, vortex （ζ）, and vertical speed （ω）, possess good significance to the area forecast of heavy rainfall induced by tropical cyclones over Fujian Province, because they reflect the basic conditions for heavy rain formation, such as water vapor, unstable energy, and convergent ascending motion. To improve the accuracy of area forecasts of heavy rainfall, the dynamic method is presented for determining the critical thresholds of physical fields to forecast the heavy rainfall areas. Through the investigation and statistic analysis of 144 heavy rain cases from July to October, 1995 to 2001 by means of T106 physical fields, some hints and the physical diagnose model for forecasting heavy rainfall induced by tropical cyclones over Fujian Province are obtained. The predicted fields of physics quantities from the T213 forecasting model are established, and the critical thresholds are determined with the dynamic method. Then the Perfect Prediction （PP） method for forecasting heavy rainfall induced by tropical cyclones over Fujian Province is presented.

关 键 词：热带气旋 完全预报 物理量 暴雨落区 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P444