广西暴雨卫星云图与热带流场变化综合预报方法  

Forecasting Heavy Rain in Guangxi Using Satellite Image and Tropical Flow Field Variation

作　　者：陈见 高安宁 覃峥嵘[2] 郑凤琴 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象台 [2]广西壮族自治区气象局,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象科技》2006年第2期138-142,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：广西气象局重点研究项目"利用卫星云图资料结合热带风场做暴雨预报"资助

摘　　要：利用卫星云图资料结合热带风场的变化,采用分级客观定量的计算方法,得到影响关键区内的云系像素值大小和云顶亮温.同时,结合该关键区内热带风场的变化,对云系是否影响广西进行预测,判断其对暴雨范围、强度、持续时间的影响程度,从而作出暴雨过程的预报.经过对1996～2002年4～9月169例暴雨个例的资料统计分析表明：在广西大范围暴雨过程中80%的云系叠加在西南风急流之上.云顶亮温在-70℃以下的云系像素值达到500时,就有大范围暴雨天气过程的可能.此结果应用到日常预报业务中,对提高暴雨预报准确率有较大帮助.The image pixel values and black-body temperature of a cloud system in the key areas can be obtained by using satellite images and adopting the grading objectively quantitative calculation method. Theses data, in combination with the variation of the tropical wind field, are used to predict whether the cloud system will affect Guangxi and to judge the extent in which the area, intensity and duration of the resulting heavy rainfall are influenced, so to make heavy rain process forecast. Based on the rainfall data from ＇April to September, 1996 to 2002, a statistical analysis is made of 169 heavy rain cases. The results show that 80 % cloud systems are overlapped on the southwestern jet, and when the image pixel value reaches 500 for the cloud system with the cloudtop temperature under - 70℃, there likely occurs large-scale heavy rainfall in Guangxi. The result can be used in forecast operation to help increase heavy rain forecast accuracy.

关 键 词：卫星云图资料 热带流场 暴雨预报 

分 类 号：P426.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.121.1