时变效应对大坝防洪风险率的影响研究  

Influence of time-varying effect on flood control risk rate for dams

作　　者：姜树海[1] 范子武[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水工水力学研究所,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利学报》2006年第4期425-430,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50579038);水利部科技创新项目(SCX2002-06)

摘　　要：在大坝的长期使用过程中,影响其防洪安全的许多不确定性因素具有明显的时变特性。本文分析了大坝的防洪随机时变特性,论证了缓变性和陡变性作用对大坝防洪安全的影响都极为显著。将非平稳的时变随机过程进行平稳化处理,建立了时变随机量量化的单因子函数模型和多因子综合模型。在此基础上,拓展了风险率的概念,将时变效应引入大坝工程老化的研究中,给出了大坝防洪时变风险率的计算公式。以某水库调洪能力的时变效应分析为例,定量评估了水库库容和坝顶高程的时变特性,讨论了其对大坝防洪风险率的影响,实现了对大坝设计基准期内防洪安全性的定量评估。In the process of long-term operation of dams, various uncertain factors having negative impact on the flood control safety are of obvious time-varying characteristics. In this paper, the time-varying characteristics of flood control of dams due to this effect both the impact of mild procedure and abrupt change are demonstrated. Through the treatment of unsteady time-varying stochastic process, a functional model of time-varying stochastic factors are established. On this process with a single factor and basis, the concept of risk rate is a comprehensive model with various extended. The time-varying effect is then introduced into the study on dam ageing problem. An equation for calculating time-varying risk rate of dams is proposed. The time-varying effect of the flood regulation capacity of a typical dam is given as an example to demonstrate how to quantitatively assessing the time-varying characteristics of the storage capacity of the reservoir and the elevation of the top of the dam. The influence on flood control risk rate is also discussed.

关 键 词：时变效应 时变风险 防洪安全评估 大坝老化 

分 类 号：TV698.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]