噪声影响下舆论传播的建模与仿真  

Modeling and Emulation on the Public Opinion Transmission under the Condition of Noise Influence

作　　者：吴青峰[1] 程庆华[1] 刘慕仁[2] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学物理科学与技术学院,湖北荆州434023 [2]广西师范大学物理与信息工程学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《长江大学学报（自科版）（上旬）》2006年第1期59-62,共4页JOURNAL OF YANGTZE UNIVERSITY (NATURAL SCIENCE EDITION) SCI ＆ ENG

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70371067;10347001)。

摘　　要：考虑到在现实社会的舆论传播过程中各种外界因素对人的干扰,使得每个人只能以一定的概率按照少数服从多数的规则进行演化这一情况,建立了相应的元胞自动机(CellularAutomata,CA)舆论传播模型,并利用“平均场”对该模型进行了理论分析和仿真试验。结果显示,在不同强度噪声的影响下,舆论演化将会得到完全不同的3种结果:①舆论最终偏向于某一种意见;②两种舆论意见各占50%;③系统处于周期性振荡中,舆论时而偏向一种意见,时而又偏向另一种意见。In consideration of interference from the external factors in the process of public opinion transmission,the evolution of this process could be made according to the majority rules based on certain probability. A cellular automata (CA) public opinion transmission model is established. The theory of “mean field” is used for a theoretical analysis and simulation experiment. The result shows that under the condition of noise with different intensities,the evolution has 3 different results,which include:①the public opinion will eventually be partial to certain attitude; ②each of the 2 attitudes will account for 50%; ③the system is in cyclic oscillation. The public opinion swings between 2 attitudes.

关 键 词：舆论传播 CA模型 噪声 仿真 

分 类 号：TP301.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]