稳健的最优简单货币政策规则在我国的应用  

The Application of Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in China

作　　者：刘斌[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局,北京100800 [2]对外经济贸易大学

出　　处：《金融研究》2006年第4期12-23,共12页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70273057)的支持.

摘　　要：本文利用我国实际数据,在建立和估计混合型模型的基础上,首先在确定性情况下考察了最优简单货币政策规则,其次考察了这个最优简单货币政策规则在不确定环境下的稳健性,然后进一步在不确定环境下研究和确定了稳健的最优简单货币政策规则。结果表明,稳健的最优简单货币政策规则意味着,在不确定性环境下稳健的货币政策不应是更加谨慎,而应是更加主动。In this paper, the author formulates and estimates a hybrid model based on the actual data of China. By using this model as a framework for studying monetary poliey rules, the optimal simple rule is determined in absence of uncertainty firstly, and then its soundness is studied under uncertainties. Further, the robust optimal simple policy rule is determined and its characteristics are investigated under uncertainties. The empirical research indieates that robust monetary policy is more aggressive instead of more cautious.

关 键 词：货币政策规则 稳健性 简单规则 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]