建筑火灾中人员安全疏散的可靠概率分析模型  

Model of probabilistic risk assessment for evacuation under building fire

作　　者：汪金辉[1] 陆守香[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽合肥230027

出　　处：《中国科学技术大学学报》2006年第1期116-118,共3页JUSTC

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2001CB409600)资助

摘　　要：将复合形进化算法引入火灾环境下建筑内人员安全疏散的可靠概率分析领域,考虑了影响人员安全疏散的随机因素,以概率分布来描述这些影响变量,根据Hasofer-Lind的可靠性指数思想,建立了基于复合形算法的建筑火灾环境下人员安全疏散评价的数学模型.通过具体的火灾案例,说明此算法可以方便地实现对目标函数复杂和附加多约束条件的函数进行全局优化计算.复合形进化算法能有效计算人员安全疏散可靠度,实现对火灾环境下人员风险的概率评价.The risk of people under building fire was expressed by Shuffled Complex Evolution -University of Arizona （SCE-UA） reliability index ft. Random variables affecting the result of evacuation were taken into account and described into probabilistic distribution. The mathematical model for evaluating evacuation based on SCE-UA algorithm was set up. A case analysis shows that this method can perform optimized calculation of complicated functions under many constraints. SCE-UA can be used to calculate the reliability of safe evacuation and quantify the risk evacuees face in building fires.

关 键 词：概率风险评价 SCE-UA优化 安全疏散 可靠度 

分 类 号：TU2[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论] X94[环境科学与工程—安全科学]