中国农村劳动力转移动因与障碍的一种解释  

From Malthus to Solow: An Explanation for the Motivation and Obstacles Effecting Farmer Labor Emigration in China

作　　者：程名望[1] 史清华[1] 徐剑侠[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰管理学院,邮政编码200030

出　　处：《经济研究》2006年第4期68-78,共11页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70173016);国家社会科学基金(03BJY061)的资助

摘　　要：农村劳动力转移是我国实现工业化必须面对的重大课题,也是解决我国“三农”问题的根本途径。本文运用动态宏观经济学的递归方法并结合推拉理论,通过所建立的模型表明城镇的拉力,特别是城镇工业技术进步,是农村劳动力转移的根本动因。而基于宏观经济变量的logit模型和基于微观经济变量的描述性分析都很好地验证了该结论。研究同时表明,加强农村基础文化教育对我国农村劳动力转移具有深远的意义;性别、家庭收入水平、区位等因素的差异也对农村劳动力转移有较明显的影响。Farmer labor emigration is an important question we have to deal with in our industrialization. It is also a basic way to solve three questions concern agriculture, rural area and farmer in China. Based on the push-pull theories, this paper tries to build Malthus and Solow model by using recursive approach in Dynastic Macroeconomics. This model shows that push comes from the town, especially the industry technological development in the urban area is the key reason caused farmer labors emigrate from rural area to urban area. This conclusion has also been improved by the logit econometric model based on the Macroeconomic variables and descriptive analysis based on Microeconomic variables. The study also shows that strengthen universal education will definitely have a deep influenee on this emigration. Besides, sex, family income and region gap will affect farmer labor＇ s emigration.

关 键 词：动态均衡 推拉理论 劳动力转移 动因 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]