贸易一体化与生产非一体化——基于经济全球化两个重要假说的实证研究  

Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production: An Empirical Study Based on Two Important Hypotheses of Economic Globalization

作　　者：刘志彪[1] 吴福象[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2006年第2期80-92,共13页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学创新基地"南京大学经济转型与发展研究中心"子课题"经济增长与结构转型研究"项目;教育部长江学者特聘教授项目"经济转型时期我国的产业竞争秩序与竞争政策"资助

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国贸易一体化水平持续上升。对此虽然可以利用引力模型加以说明,但其解释力是有限的。本文在对世界范围内的贸易一体化进行统计描述和计量检验的基础上,对包括中国在内的东亚经济体的贸易竞争状况进行了结构分析。结果表明,经济体之间的相似程度越高,贸易量越大,贸易一体化程度也越高。通过各种因素的传导,经济体的出口竞争能力增强,生产非一体化程度有所提高。Granger因果检验的结果则进一步表明,生产非一体化和出口专业化是贸易一体化的原因,而资本化程度既是贸易一体化的原因,也是生产非一体化的原因。China has maintained a high level of growth in the integration of trade since the reform and opening up policy in the 1980s. This may be explained partly but not fully by the gravity model. Based on statistical tests of world trade and structural analysis on Eastern Asian economic entities including China, we find that higher similarity and a larger amount of trade among economic entities result in more integrated trade. When the export competitiveness of an economic entity grows because of various factors, the level of disintegration of production rises. The results of the Granger Causality Test show that disintegration of production and specialization of exports contribute to integration of trade. Both integration of trade and disintegration of production are determined by the capitalization index.

关 键 词：贸易一体化 生产非一体化 格兰杰检验 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]