玉米粗缩病(MRDV)的季节流行动态和经济损失的定量研究  

A Quantitative Study on the Epidemic Dynamics and Economic Loss Caused by Maize Rough-Dwarf Virus Disease

作　　者：谭万忠[1] 邓先明[1] 何庆国 韩云民 

机构地区：[1]重庆西南农业大学植保系,630716 [2]四川南部县植保站,637300 [3]四川南充地区种子公司,637000

出　　处：《病毒学杂志》1990年第3期330-336,共7页

摘　　要：采用系统调查方法研究田间玉米粗缩病(MRDV)的自然发展动态和经济损失规律,其结果表明,MRDV在玉米生长季中的进展曲线遵循对数抛物线函数(y=a·e^bx+ex^2)规律,从而建立了中单2#和丹玉13#玉米上MRDV(病指数和发病率)的流行模型(α<0.05,估计病情符合率75—100％),同时认为此函数为生长后期表现“隐症”的一类植物病毒病发展动态的通用拟合模型。MRDV对玉米成穗率、穗粒数、穗粒和干粒重诸产量因子都显著影响,相关分析发现玉米损失率与拔节,抽雄和吐丝期的MRDV严重度密切相关(r≥0.89,α<0.05),因此建立了这些时期病指数和病株率与经济损失率间的线性关系模型,并用相应的模型估计了南充地区1988—1989年MRDV引起的玉米产量和经济损失。In this work, the dynamics of maize rough-dwarf virus(MRDV)epidemics and the economic loss due to the disease were studied using data recorded from naturally infected field maize crops. MRDV epidemics were found to develop during the growing season following the logarithmic parabola(LP), thus models for their progressing on Zhongdan 2 and Danyu 13 maize crops were established by fitting observed data to the LP function y=a·exp(b·x+c·x^2), The LP function is considered general for modelling progress curves of those virus epiphytics which increase in early stages progressively to a peak and then decrease mainly because of symptom hiding later in the cropping season. MRDV infection affected all yield components (e·g·rate of harvestable ears, number and weight of grains per ear, 1000-grain weght, etc.)and thus the yield and economic income were significantly impaired. Correlation analysis revealed close relationships beween yield(or economic)losses and MRDV disease severity or incidence at GS. 5, GS. 7 and GS. 8 (r≥0.89, a<0.05). Consequently, linear models of these relationships were computed through regression analysis, and a 'loss-incidence' model at GS.7 was applied to evaluate the yield and economic loss in 1988—1989 in Nanchong Prefecture, to reveal the economic importance of the disease.

关 键 词：玉米 粗缩病 流行动态 经济损失 

分 类 号：S435.131.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]