Logistic模型的改进及在油藏可采储量预测中的应用  

Improvement and application of Logistic model to recoverable reserves forecast in oil -gas reservoir

作　　者：张家良[1] 余元洲[2] 邢卫东[2] 张建[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学能源学院 [2]中国石油大港油田勘探开发研究院,天津大港300280

出　　处：《油气地质与采收率》2006年第3期56-57,73,共3页Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency

摘　　要：为了更准确地预测油气藏未来的经济可采储量,依据油气藏随开发必然要经历产量递减和生产收支平衡的实际,利用Logistic模型中技术可采储量、产量与时间的相互关系,经推导和改进后,再结合当前经济技术条件下的废弃产油量,预测油气藏的有效生产时间及其经济可采储量。实践证实,改进后的Logistic模型预测结果更符合油气藏的生产实际,能为油气藏的储量管理提供可靠的依据。An oil - gas reservoir certainly will go through the reality of production rate decline and balanced revenue and expenditure of production. For more accurately forecasting the future economic recoverable reserves of oil - gas reservoir, Logistic model is derived and improved when abandonment oil production rate under currently economic technical condition is considered. Effective production time and economic recoverable reserves of the oil - gas reservoir are predicted according to the relationship among technical recoverable reserves,oil production and time as well as the abandonment oil production rate. The practice proves that the result predicted by the improved Logistic model is more fit for the real production of the oil -gas reservoir,and can provide the reliable theory basis for its reserves management of the oil - gas reservoir.

关 键 词：油气藏 预测模型 经济 可采储量 废弃产量 生产时间 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]