基于模糊层次分析法的电力负荷组合预测  

Combination power load forecasting based on fuzzy AHP

作　　者：吴丹[1] 程浩忠[1] 奚珣[2] 夏夷[2] 沈晓岚[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200030 [2]上海市电力公司市东供电公司,上海200122

出　　处：《华东电力》2006年第4期10-13,共4页East China Electric Power

基　　金：上海市重点科技攻关计划(041612012)

摘　　要：针对电力负荷预测特点和人判断所特有的模糊性,为提高负荷预测精度,提出了基于模糊层次分析法的电力负荷组合预测模型。此模型引入三角模糊数的一些基本理论,采用三角模糊数表征专家判断信息以充分考虑专家判断的模糊性,采用层次分析法对专家判断结果进行处理以得到方案层各方案的最优权重。该电力负荷预测层次分析模型综合考虑了影响电力负荷的多种不确定因素。实际算例表明,所述方法在综合不同模型预测结果的过程中考虑了专家经验,能有效提高负荷预测的精度。In view of the features of power load forecasting and the innate uncertainty of judgments, this paper build up a new combination power load forecasting model based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process （ Fuzzy AHP） to improve the forecasting accuracy. The model introduced the basic theory of triangular fuzzy number, adopted triangular fuzzy number to indicate judgments of experts, and used AHP to deal with judging information and get optmal weights of differet forecasting models in scheme hierarchy, and analytic hierarchy model built up in this paper can consider various features of power load forecasting. Sample results show that the proposed method, in which the experts＇ experiences were considered during the process of combining forecasting results of different forecasting models, can effectively improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

关 键 词：电力负荷预测 组合模型 三角模糊数 模糊层次分析法 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]