改进灰色Verhulst模型在武汉市全年用电总量预测中的应用  

Application of An Improved Gray Verhulst Model in Urban Annual Electrical Power Consumption

作　　者：梅汇海[1] 肖益民[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北教育学院数学与计量经济系,武汉430205 [2]武汉大学水利水电学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《湖北教育学院学报》2006年第2期6-7,共2页Journal of Hubei Institute of Education

摘　　要：影响城市年用电量的因素很多,获取这些影响因素的资料是十分困难的。为确保城市供电,合理安排供电部门的生产计划,须预测未来城市年用电量。本文提出对样本资料要求不高,又能反映城市年用电量逐年变化的灰色Verhulst模型,对武汉市年用电量进行预测,结果表明该方法是可行的。Many facts influence the urban annual electrical power consumption. It is difficult to get all of information of the facts. In order to make the plan of rational electrical power production , urban annual electrical power consumption in the future must be predicted. In this paper an improved gray Verhulst model is intro- duced to do that. The prediction shows that the method is applicable to the electrical power consumption, which increases as the shaoe of letters.

关 键 词：年用电量 灰色VERHULST模型 预测 

分 类 号：TM92[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]