基于系统动力学的港口经济分析  

Port Economy Analysis Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：刘丽娜[1] 郭子坚[1] 宋向群[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《水运工程》2006年第5期18-21,共4页Port & Waterway Engineering

基　　金：大连市科技计划项目(项目批准号:2004clzc217)

摘　　要：以系统动力学(SD)模型为主体,结合投入产出法、乘数法和计量经济学模型,进行了港口经济影响分析。将该模型应用到大连市的港口经济系统中,通过模型的基本模拟和政策模拟,得出2020年之前大连市港口对社会经济影响的动态变化,并提出了大连市港口发展的建议。Analysis of port＇s influence on economy is conducted based mainly on system dynamics （SD）, combining also input-output method, the Mulitplier, and econometrics model. SD model was applied to the port economy system of Dalian municipality. Through basic simulation and policy simulation by the model, we got the dynamic variation of the influences of ports in Dalian municipality on the social economy, and then put forward suggestions on port development in Dalian.

关 键 词：系统动力学 投入产出法 乘数法 计量经济学模型 模拟 动态变化 

分 类 号：F552.3[经济管理—产业经济]