财务危机预警模型在商业银行信贷风险管理中的应用  

An Application of Financial Distress Warning Model to Credit Risk Management in Commercial Banks

作　　者：宋雪枫[1] 杨朝军[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学管理学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2006年第5期14-20,共7页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(70331001)

摘　　要：商业银行不良信贷已经成为其发展的瓶颈,商业银行要发展,就必须从根本上降低未来不良贷款形成的可能性。本文认为形成不良贷款最主要的原因是企业盈利能力的下降。因此借助我国上市公司的财务样本数据,建立了企业财务危机预警的生存分析模型——Cox模型,该模型具有可以使用时间序列、无需样本配对、连续预测和高鲁棒性的特点,能够为商业银行提供更为有效的企业财务危机预测,从而降低商业银行不良贷款的形成。Non-performing loans become a bottle-neck of development of commercial banks. Commercial banks sbould decrease the possibility of non-performing loans for further development. In this paper, we hold that deterioration of companies＇ profitability is the main reason of non-performing loans, and establish a survival analysis model, called Cox model, to predict companies＇ financial distress, with the financial sample data from listed companies in Chinese capital market. The model has the characters of using time series data, no sample match requirement, continual forecast, and high robustness, and can effectively predict financial distress of companies, which can decrease the possibility of non-performing loans.

关 键 词：生存分析 财务危机 危机预警 盈利能力 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]