气候变化对中国农业的影响研究进展  

The Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in China

作　　者：邓可洪[1] 居辉[2] 熊伟[2] 杨修[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北三峡职业技术学院,宜昌443000 [2]中国农科院农业环境与可持续发展所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2006年第5期439-441,共3页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家"十五"攻关课题"气候变化对我国主要经济部门的影响及综合评估"(2004BA611B-02);中国气象局气候变化专项资助(CCSF2005-2-QH33)。

摘　　要：农业是气候变化的主要敏感部门之一,气候变化对中国农业的影响利弊并存,但以负面影响为主。为明确气候变化对中国农业的影响程度,根据以往的相关研究,对中国农业对气候变化的敏感性进行了综述。分析表明,由于受到气候变化的影响,未来中国的种植制度格局会发生改变,一熟制种植区面积会减少而三熟制种植区会增加,以现有生产方式经营的主要粮食作物和经济作物会不同程度减产,牧业和渔业也会受到气候变化的负面影响。The agriculture is one of the main sensitive sectors to climatic change. Impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture have both negative and positive, while the negative effect takes dominative position. Clarifying the impacts will provide guide for agriculture development, as well as national and regional grain development strategies. Based on the reviews of relevant researches, the paper concludes the impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture. The results indicate that Chinese cropping systems and its distribution will be affected by climate change, and same of cereal and cash crops production. The area of single cropping system will decrease while tri-planting system increase, crops production will decrease, stock and fishery will get adverse impacts from climate change.

关 键 词：农业 气候变化 敏感性 

分 类 号：S512[农业科学—作物学]