土坝坝坡失稳风险分析  

Analysis on risk from instability of earth-fill dam slope

作　　者：李清富[1] 龙少江[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学环境与水利学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2006年第5期41-44,共4页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：河南省自然科学基金资助项目(0311052000)

摘　　要：土坝坝坡失稳是导致溃坝的主要原因之一,进行坝坡失稳风险概率分析是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。针对土坝坝坡失稳风险模型,详细讨论了模型中各有关参数的取值及随机变量的统计分析问题,建议以坝坡最危险滑裂面为基础的坝坡失效风险计算的蒙特卡罗法,并以某大坝的坝坡失稳风险分析为例说明了建议方法的具体应用。The instability of dam slope is one of the main causation of the failure of earth-fill dam, and then the risk probability analysis of the slope instability is an important part of the risk assessment on the dam risk. A risk assessment model for the instability of the dam slope is presented herein; for which the statistic analysis on the values of various parameters and the random variables in the model are discussed in detail, and then the Monte-carlo Method based on the most dangerous slipping surface is suggested for the risk calculation on the fail of the dam slope as well. Furthermore, the application of the suggested method is introduced with a practical case of the analysis made on the risk of instability on dam slope for a dam.

关 键 词：土坝 坝坡失稳 风险分析 蒙特卡罗法 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]