福建省农民消费结构的灰色关联分析及其变动预测  

Gray Relation Grade Analysis and Alteration Forecasting of Consumption Structure of Rural Residents of Fujian

作　　者：吴学文[1] 晏路明[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《福建师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2006年第3期55-59,共5页Journal of Fujian Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金资助项目(编号:03BTJ004)。

摘　　要：本文应用系统聚类、灰色关联分析、灰色预测等方法对福建省1993～2003年期间农民消费结构的发展状况进行分析,并对2004～2008年的变动趋势进行预测,以揭示该省农民消费结构变化的规律。模型输出结果显示:农民生活水平日益提高,农民消费结构正向更高层次的方向发展。对模型输出数据的各种分析,将对福建农村消费市场的培育和农村经济发展提供有价值的参考信息。The article reveals the law of consumption structure of rural residents of Fujian by using the method of system clustering, the method of gray relation grade analysis, the method of gray forecasting and so on to analyze the condition of consumption structure of rural residents of Fujian from the year of 1993 to the year of 2003 and to forecast the trend of it from the year of 2004 to the year of 2008. The result shows that the standard of living of rural residents has gradually advanced and the consumption structure of rural residents has developed towards higher level. The analysis will provide valuable referencing information for rural consuming market and rural economic development of Fujian.

关 键 词：农民消费结构 系统聚类 灰色关联分析 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]