改进的物理过程参数化对台风路径数值预报的影响  

PERFORMANCE OF PARAMETERIZATION OF SUB-SCALE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN NUMERICAL MODEL AND ITS EFFECTS ON TYPHOON TRACK FORECASTINGS

作　　者：陈德辉[1] 王诗文[1] 汪厚君 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1996年第1期1-8,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家科委85-906项目基金

摘　　要：文章介绍了国家气象中心的台风路径数值预报试验模式［１］和新开发的改进物理过程参数化方案，对１９９２年的５个台风个例初步试验结果表明：改进物理过程参数化模式对台风路径和台风强度的预报比简单物理过程模式有明显提高，２４ｈ和４８ｈ台风中心位置预报误差分别为１８８ｋｍ和３３７ｋｍ，比原模式减小３８ｋｍ和１０９ｋｍ；４８ｈ台风中心气压与实况之差平均减小３ｈＰａ．A new package of parameterization of sub-scale physical processes has been performed for the model of typhoon track prediction at Numerical Meteorological Center (NMC),Beijing. Five cases of typhoons, which happened during the summer 1992(ELI and JANIS), were chosen for the numerical simulations. In comparison of the results obtained by the performed physical processes schemes with those obtained by the old simpler schemes, it is shown that either in typhoon track forecasting or in typhoon intensity prediction, the new schemes are superior to the simpler schemes. In fact, the mean errors of 24h and 48 h typhoon central position forecastings are 188 km and 337 km for the new schemes, respectively, and 226 km and 446 km for the simpler schemes respectively. The mean deviation of 48 h predicted central pressures from the observed ones is 23 hpa for the new scheme, and 26 hpa for the simpler scheme.

关 键 词：物理过程 参数化 台风 路径 数值预报 风预报 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]