利用树木年轮资料重建新疆东天山300多年来干旱日数的变化  

UTILIZING TREE RING CHRONOLOGIES TO RECONSTRUCT 300-YEAR DROUGHT DAYS IN EASTERN TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

作　　者：张志华[1] 吴祥定[1] 李骥[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,中国科学院地理研究所

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1996年第1期53-60,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家气象局科教司资助课题

摘　　要：采用东天山６个相邻地点的云杉年轮序列求得该区域平均树木年轮年表（１６６５～１９８８年）．通过响应面函数的计算，发现树木生长对温度和降水有明显的非线性响应，表明用该年表序列重建单个温度要素存在一定片面性．利用森林干旱模式计算的树木生长期干早日数，含有温度、降水、土壤性质等诸因子，且与年轮生长明显相关．进而利用树木年轮资料重建了该地区过去３００年来干旱日数，与实际旱涝情况吻合较好．The major local tree ring chronology (1665～1989) in the Eastern Tianshan Mis was obtained by averaging 6 tree ring chronologies. The response surfaces of tree ring to climate indicate that growth of spruce in the Eastern Tianshan Mis is nonlinear correlated with precipitation and temperature. This interaction makes it unreasonable to reconstruct either precipitation or temperature, separately, using regression methods.Drought days during tree growth season were estimated from regression model including both temperature and precipitation which would influence tree-ring growth. The relationship between tree ring and drought days is significant. As a result, the local past drought days back to 1665 A. D. at Miquan and Fukang, Eastern Tianshan, were reconstructed based on spruce tree--ring chronologies. The results are coincided with the actual situation.

关 键 词：响应函数 干旱日数 气候重建 干旱 树木年轮 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]