地震序列类型早期判断的可能性  

POSSIBILITY OF DETEMINING THE TYPE OF EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE AT EARLY STAGE

作　　者：吴开统[1] 彭克银[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心,中国北京100036

出　　处：《地震》1996年第1期1-8,共8页Earthquake

摘　　要：详细讨论利用地震现场提供的1天、3天和7天观测资料,预测地震序列类型和最大强余震震级的可能性和现实性。 47个M≥6.0地震的地震序列实例检验表明,利用7天内的观测资料,准确率可达到85.1％。因此,使用b值横截距法有可能在早期预测最大强余震的震级并判断地震序列的类型。This paper discussed how to use the observed data of earthquake area in one day. three days and seven days to provide the possibility and reality to predict the type of earthquake sequence and the magnitude of maximum afterquakes. The research results based on 47 cases of earthquake sequences with M≥6 indicate that application of the observed data in seven days reaches the accuracy of 85.1%. So, it is possible to use the interception method of b-value to predict the magnitude of maximum afterquakes and type of earthquake sequence at early stage.

关 键 词：地震预测 地震序列 早期判断 可能性 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]