分形方法在地震序列类型早期判别中的应用  

APPLICATION OF FRACTAL TO THE EARLY JUDGEMENT OF SEISMIC SEQUENCES

作　　者：彭克银[1] 高伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心,中国北京100036

出　　处：《地震》1996年第1期68-74,共7页Earthquake

摘　　要：着重讨论了地震序列的空间分布随时间变化的特性,利用分形方法提取大震后余震的空间分维信息,从而达到早期判别地震序列类型的目的。以1966年以来定位精度较好、余震记录较全的12个7级以上大震和大同6级强震序列为资料,计算了震后1个月内余震随时间变化的空间分维数。结果发现,不同类型的地震序列分维数不同。一般震后5—6天,主震型序列的分维数在1.1—1.2之间,多震型序列的分维数在1.3以上。利用前7天的观测资料预测地震序列类型,准确率可达84.6％。因此,利用此方法有可能在早期较准确地预测地震序列的类型。In this paper, the characteristics of the spatial distribution of the seismic sequences that varied with time are discussed. By using the fractal technique, authors obtained the fractal information of the aftershocks after mainshock occurrence, and reached the purpose for judging the types of seismic sequences. On the basis of the data which involve 12 large earthquakes and one moderate earthquake, authors calculate the fractal dimensions of these earthquakes, and find that the values of the fractal dimensions are different for different earthquakes. Generally speaking, the value for the mainshock -aftershock type 5 - 7 days after the mainshock is between 1.1 to 1.2. and the value for the swarm type is greater than 1.3. The accuracy of judging the type of seismic sequences can reach 84.6%. It is possible to judge the type of a seismic sequence earlier by using this technique.

关 键 词：分形法 地震序列 早期判断 类型 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]