中国电力工业与国民经济各产业增加值的关系研究  

Study on the relationship between electric power industry and value-added industries in China

作　　者：何永秀[1] 柴学俊[1] 赵四化[1] 李莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第3期97-100,共4页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(05CJY020);华北电力大学留学回国人员基金资助项目(200401)

摘　　要：基于Granger因果关系及误差修正模型,对我国三产业用电量与三产业增加值的因果互动关系进行了初步分析。结果显示,我国各产业用电都是各产业增加值的Granger因果关系,电力工业促进了各产业经济的发展;各产业用电量与各产业经济都存在协整关系。从长期均衡看,电力工业对第二产业经济的促进作用最大,其次是第三产业,最后是第一产业。所以我国应协调做好电力工业规划与需求侧管理工作,保障充足的电力供给,并且加强第二产业工业用电的管理,节能降耗,更好地发挥电力工业的价值,促进我国经济可持续发展。The Granger-causality （GC） and the error correction model （ECM） techniques are applied to analyze the relationship between the electricity consumption and the value-added three industries in China. The results show that there is unidirectional Granger causality relationship between the electricity consumption and industrial added values, and that the power industry promotes the development of the other industries. It is concluded that the power industry plays the largest role in the development of the secondary industry, next in the tertiary industry, and the smallest in the primary industry. For the power and resources shortage, we should coordinate the power planning and demand side management, enhance the management of the electricity consumption of the secondary industry, improve the technology and lower the energy consumption.

关 键 词：电力工业 产业经济 因果关系 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F123.9[经济管理—世界经济]