江西食物生产要素与自然灾害因素驱动分析  

Drive Factors Analyses of Food Production and Natural Disasters in Jiangxi

作　　者：吕爱清[1] 邱爱保[2] 卞新民[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学农学院,江苏南京210095 [2]宜春学院,江西宜春336000

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2006年第3期170-172,177,共4页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家"十五"重点科技攻关计划课题(东南丘陵区优质高效种植业结构模式与技术研究2001BA508B-15);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目成果(波动;效率与区域食物安全05JA790069);江西省"十五"社科规划项目(江西粮食风险演替规律及对策研究05yj25)

摘　　要：食物安全的基础是食物生产安全,食物生产安全有赖于食物生产要素的合理配置。江西食物生产要素驱动因子分析表明,化肥用量、灌溉面积、机械动力和农村用电是食物生产正向强驱动因子,劳动力、种植面积是食物生产正向次强驱动因子,成灾面积是食物生产负向次强驱动因子。1978—2003年江西食物生产总量与食物生产要素保障度呈现高度正相关(γ=0.885),这表明江西食物生产总量受生产要素投入驱动,资源因子锐减是导致2000-2003年江西食物总量下降的主要原因。江西自然灾害因子分析表明,洪涝灾害面积、低温灾害面积、洪涝绝收面积和低温绝收面积是导致自然灾害的强驱动因子,干旱灾害面积、干旱绝收面积、风雹灾害面积和风雹绝收面积是导致自然灾害的次强驱动因子。Food production security is a foundation to food security, it＇s depends on the reasonable disposition of food production factors. The paper seven production factors of food has selected, food production factors in Jiangxi are studied, drive factor analysis show, the consumption of chemical fertilizers, irrigation area, power of agriculture machinery and electricity consumed in rural area are positive first strong drive factor of food production, the total agriculture employed persons and sown area are second strong drive factor of food production, the area of affected is negative second strong drive factor food production. Total food with the guarantee degree of food production factors present high positive correlation（ =0. 885）from 1978 to 2003 in Jiangxi, this shows that Jiangxi total food is affected put in factors of food production, resource factor sharply decline led to descent of total food in Jingxi from 2000 to2003. Nature disasters factors in Jiangxi are studied, the analysis show, the disasters area of flood and low temperature, disasters area of zero gain of flood and low temperature are first strong drive factor to cause natural disasters. The disasters area of arid and wind-hail, disasters area of zero gain of arid and wind-hail are second strong drive factor to cause natural disasters.

关 键 词：食物生产 生产要素 自然灾害 驱动因子 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]