城镇职工基本养老保险金需求预测模型及应用——以西安市为例  

The Demand-forecasting Model of Benefit of Basic Old-age Insurance For Urban Employees:the Application of Xi'an City

作　　者：张思锋[1] 周华[1] 张文学[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2006年第5期55-63,共9页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：本文根据我国基本养老保险制度从“现收现付制”向“部分积累制”转轨过程中,“新人”、“中人”、“老人”共存的国情,在界定城镇职工基本养老保险金需求概念的基础上,分析了影响我国城镇职工基本养老保险金需求的9个主要参数,构建了城镇职工基本养老保险金需求的预测模型,并应用模型对西安市城镇职工基本养老保险金需求进行了预测,以期探索城镇职工基本养老保险金需求的预测方法。Considered the situation of our country＇s basic pension systems of ＂new members＂, ＂middle members＂, ＂old members＂ coexisting in the course of transition from so-called ＂pay as you go＂ to ＂partial accumulation model＂, the demand of basic pension for urban employees is defined, and nine factors which influence the demand of basic pension for urban employees are analyzed. This article conducts the demand-forecasting model of basic pension for urban employees. By using this model, Xi＇an City＇s demand of basic pension for urban employees is forecasted, and the expected methods of the demand-forecasting of that are discussed.

关 键 词：基本养老保险金需求 需求主体 养老保险金需求预测模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]